Virginia at SMU
Final
UVA34% SMU66%
Called TEMPO had SMU by 6.4. SMU won by 10.
Forecast and result
| Measure | TEMPO | Market line | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | TEMPOSMU by 6.42.9 pts toward UVA vs the line | Market lineSMU by 9.3Opened: SMU by 8.3 | FinalSMU by 10.0 |
| Total points | TEMPO52.30.5 pts over the line | Market line51.8Opened: 53.3 | Final36 |
Market median saved Oct 13, 2026Grading
Forecast results
- Margin miss
- 3.6 points
- Total miss
- 16.3 points
- Market margin miss
- 0.8 points
- Market total miss
- 15.8 points
Actual game measures
How each offense performed, based on the plays in our records.
| Measure | UVA | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per drive | 1.63 | 2.56 |
| Finishing drives | — | 2.88 |
| EPA/play | −0.17 | 0.14 |
| Success rate | 40.7% | 44.9% |
| Rush success | 46.7% | 50.0% |
| Pass success | 34.8% | 40.5% |
| Yards per play | 4.46 | 4.83 |
| Explosive plays | 5.6% | 10.1% |
| Havoc | 3.7% | 10.1% |
| Pace | 54.0 | 69.0 |
Compared with opponent. Lower havoc is better; pace and close values stay neutral. Results through Tue, Oct 20, 2026, 8:25 AM ET. — means no measured value.
Series
Head to head
Ratings this season
Each team’s strength at every cutoff in this saved update, with 90% ranges.
90% range