Playoff odds
Every remaining game simulated 10,000 times, through the 12-team playoff. How the outlook works Rounded odds are simulation frequencies; 0% or 100% is not a guarantee for an undecided event. Already-decided outcomes stay fixed.
Every contender
Teams with at least a half-percent chance.
Team / record
Miami6–0ACCACC Playoff92%Bye55%Avg seed4.4Quarters79%Semis45%Final24%Champion13%
Ohio State6–1Big TenB1G Playoff90%Bye65%Avg seed3.4Quarters82%Semis53%Final32%Champion19%
Georgia6–1SECSEC Playoff79%Bye44%Avg seed4.6Quarters69%Semis41%Final23%Champion13%
Notre Dame6–1IndependentIND Playoff73%Bye12%Avg seed7.2Quarters53%Semis31%Final17%Champion9%
Indiana6–1Big TenB1G Playoff70%Bye21%Avg seed6.2Quarters50%Semis25%Final11%Champion5%
Texas Tech6–0Big 12B12 Playoff68%Bye32%Avg seed5.2Quarters51%Semis22%Final9%Champion4%
Utah6–0Big 12B12 Playoff66%Bye32%Avg seed5.2Quarters49%Semis22%Final9%Champion4%
BYU6–0Big 12B12 Playoff60%Bye25%Avg seed5.7Quarters41%Semis16%Final6%Champion2%
Ole Miss5–1SECSEC Playoff58%Bye24%Avg seed5.8Quarters45%Semis23%Final11%Champion5%
UCLA6–0Big TenB1G Playoff54%Bye18%Avg seed6.1Quarters33%Semis11%Final4%Champion1%
LSU5–2SECSEC Playoff51%Bye15%Avg seed6.5Quarters40%Semis23%Final14%Champion8%
Alabama5–2SECSEC Playoff48%Bye10%Avg seed7.2Quarters34%Semis18%Final9%Champion5%
Iowa5–1Big TenB1G Playoff38%Bye6%Avg seed7.4Quarters22%Semis9%Final4%Champion1%
James Madison7–0Sun BeltSBC Playoff37%Bye0%Avg seed11.9Quarters3%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion0%
Boise State5–1Pac-12P12 Playoff36%Bye0%Avg seed11.9Quarters6%Semis1%Final<1%Champion<1%
Texas4–2SECSEC Playoff36%Bye8%Avg seed6.4Quarters26%Semis13%Final7%Champion3%
Tennessee6–1SECSEC Playoff36%Bye9%Avg seed6.6Quarters23%Semis10%Final4%Champion2%
Wake Forest6–1ACCACC Playoff30%Bye2%Avg seed8.5Quarters14%Semis6%Final2%Champion<1%
Oregon4–2Big TenB1G Playoff28%Bye6%Avg seed7.4Quarters18%Semis9%Final5%Champion2%
Kentucky6–1SECSEC Playoff24%Bye4%Avg seed7.2Quarters12%Semis4%Final1%Champion<1%
USC6–1Big TenB1G Playoff20%Bye4%Avg seed7.0Quarters12%Semis5%Final2%Champion<1%
Houston6–1Big 12B12 Playoff14%Bye2%Avg seed7.8Quarters7%Semis2%Final<1%Champion<1%
Arizona5–1Big 12B12 Playoff12%Bye2%Avg seed7.7Quarters6%Semis2%Final<1%Champion<1%
Oregon State5–2Pac-12P12 Playoff9%Bye0%Avg seed12.0Quarters1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion<1%
SMU5–1ACCACC Playoff8%Bye<1%Avg seed9.9Quarters3%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion<1%
Florida5–2SECSEC Playoff8%Bye<1%Avg seed8.3Quarters4%Semis1%Final<1%Champion<1%
Nebraska5–2Big TenB1G Playoff7%Bye<1%Avg seed8.3Quarters3%Semis1%Final<1%Champion<1%
Northwestern5–1Big TenB1G Playoff6%Bye<1%Avg seed8.1Quarters3%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion<1%
UTSA6–1AmericanAAC Playoff5%Bye0%Avg seed12.0Quarters<1%Semis<1%Final0%Champion0%
New Mexico5–1Mountain WestMWC Playoff5%Bye0%Avg seed12.0Quarters<1%Semis<1%Final0%Champion0%
Missouri5–2SECSEC Playoff4%Bye<1%Avg seed8.2Quarters2%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion<1%
Liberty5–1C-USACUSA Playoff3%Bye0%Avg seed12.0Quarters<1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion0%
Louisville4–3ACCACC Playoff3%Bye0%Avg seed11.4Quarters1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion<1%
Oklahoma3–3SECSEC Playoff3%Bye<1%Avg seed8.9Quarters1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion<1%
Michigan4–2Big TenB1G Playoff2%Bye<1%Avg seed8.4Quarters1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion<1%
Auburn4–2SECSEC Playoff2%Bye<1%Avg seed8.5Quarters1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion<1%
North Texas4–2AmericanAAC Playoff2%Bye0%Avg seed12.0Quarters<1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion0%
Oklahoma State4–2Big 12B12 Playoff2%Bye0%Avg seed9.6Quarters<1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion0%
Wisconsin4–2Big TenB1G Playoff1%Bye<1%Avg seed9.2Quarters<1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion<1%
Mississippi State4–2SECSEC Playoff1%Bye<1%Avg seed8.7Quarters<1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion0%
North Carolina4–2ACCACC Playoff1%Bye0%Avg seed10.1Quarters<1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion<1%
North Dakota State6–1Mountain WestMWC Playoff1%Bye0%Avg seed12.0Quarters<1%Semis<1%Final0%Champion0%
Memphis5–2AmericanAAC Playoff<1%Bye0%Avg seed—Quarters<1%Semis<1%Final0%Champion0%
Baylor4–2Big 12B12 Playoff<1%Bye<1%Avg seed—Quarters<1%Semis<1%Final<1%Champion<1%The bracket
The field with the likeliest seeds, with the favorite winning every game. Each chance is TEMPO's forecast for that game.
First round
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final
Champion
The chance of every game going this way1 in 163
This week's stakes
The games that swing playoff chances most.
Team and next game Chance with a loss and with a win0%25%50%75%100% Chance now