The live record
Forecasts saved before kickoff, graded against final results.
So far
- Winners picked
- 66% 59 games
- Against the spread
- 51% 29–28–2
- 57 picks · breakeven 52.4%
- Over / under
- 54% 32–27
- 59 picks · breakeven 52.4%
59 games graded. Against the spread and over/under, break-even at the usual −110 price is 52.4%.
Accuracy against the market
Against the market line saved with each forecast, not the closing line. Lower is better.
Error, points TEMPO Market Diff.
MarginAverage miss 11.4 10.8 +0.6
MarginRMSE 13.8 13.5 +0.3
TotalAverage miss 13.0 12.8 +0.2
TotalRMSE 16.3 15.9 +0.4
Paired margin games: 59. Paired total games: 59. Missing lines excluded.
Probabilities and ranges
- Win-chance Brier score
- 0.230
- Lower is betterCoin flip: 0.250
- Win-chance log loss
- 0.661
- Lower is betterCoin flip: 0.693
- Margin 90% coverage
- 96.6%
- Aim: 90%59 games
- Total 90% coverage
- 93.2%
- Aim: 90%59 games
Weekly record
Week Games Winners Avg miss ATS O/U
What counts
The record counts games between two FBS teams.
Each game is graded once on its kickoff forecast; model versions keep separate records.
ATS and O/U use the market line saved with each live forecast. Replayed and hypothetical forecasts do not enter this record.
Grading rules