SECLonghorns

Texas

Next: vs Ole MissOct 24

Rank

9th

of 138 FBS teams

Rating

+22.5

90% range 14.8 to 30.1

Offense

35.9

14th: points scored vs an average team

Defense

13.4

5th: points allowed vs an average team

Record

4–2

7.9–4.1 projected over the regular season

Playoff

36%

chance to make the field

12 games, 4–2

Schedule

Ranks are retrospective TEMPO estimates, not poll rankings or ranks saved before kickoff.

Wk 1Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET vs

Texas State W 59–7

Rating change+0.9

Wk 2Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ET vs#1

Ohio State W 24–23

Rating change+0.6

Wk 3Sep 19 · 8:00 PM ET vs

UTSA W 30–6

Rating change−0.3

Wk 4Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET at#14

Tennessee W 20–17

Rating change+0.5

Wk 6Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET vs#12

OklahomaNeutral L 24–27

Rating change−0.3

Wk 7Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET vs

Florida L 24–27

Rating change−1.2

Wk 8Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET vs#7

Ole Miss Win 56%

Playoff

Wk 9Oct 31 · 7:30 PM ET vs

Mississippi State Est. 84%

Wk 10Nov 7 · Time TBD at#22

Missouri Est. 64%

Wk 11Nov 14 · Time TBD at#3

LSU Est. 33%

Wk 12Nov 21 · Time TBD vs

Arkansas Est. 93%

Wk 13Nov 27 · 7:30 PM ET at#25

Texas A&M Est. 65%

This season, simulated

Chances

Provisional odds. Schedule or rules need confirmation.Details

Projected record: 7.9–4.1
Conference record: 4.9–4.1

Make the playoff: 36%
First-round bye: 8%
Conference title game: 7%
Win the conference: 4%
Reach the quarterfinal: 26%
Reach the semifinal: 13%
Reach the final: 7%
Win it all: 3%

What’s at stake next

The playoff chance now, with a loss and with a win.

Texasvs MISS Now36%13%54%

With its 90% range at each cutoff

Rating this season

90% range

Estimated after the fact at each cutoff.

Estimates of how good the team was, not forecasts to grade

Past seasons

Season	Conference	Rank#	Rating	Off.	Def.	RecordW–L	CFP entryCFP
2025	SEC	15 of 136	18.5	35.4	16.9	10–3	—
2024	SEC	6 of 134	23.2	36.8	13.6	13–3	Seed5
2023	Big 12	9 of 133	22.4	38.3	15.8	12–2	Seed3
2022	Big 12	10 of 131	18.9	36.7	17.8	8–5	—
2021	Big 12	42 of 130	6.4	35.2	28.8	5–7	—
2020	Big 12	14 of 127	15.8	41.9	26.1	7–3	—
2019	Big 12	16 of 130	16.1	38.0	21.9	8–5	—
2018	Big 12	18 of 130	14.0	34.1	20.2	10–4	—
2017	Big 12	27 of 130	10.6	29.6	19.1	7–6	—
2016	Big 12	48 of 128	4.6	31.8	27.2	5–7	—
2015	Big 12	70 of 128	−0.1	26.8	27.0	5–7	—

Adjusted for opponents; outward is better on both sides

Profile

TEX offenseFBS average

MeasureValue

Points per drive · points per possession.

Profiles and percentiles