AmericanMean Green

North Texas

Next: at NavyOct 24

Rank

62nd

of 138 FBS teams

Rating

+2.7

90% range −5.7 to 11.1

Offense

33.3

23rd: points scored vs an average team

Defense

30.6

102nd: points allowed vs an average team

Record

4–2

8.5–3.5 projected over the regular season

Playoff

chance to make the field

12 games, 4–2

Schedule

Ranks are retrospective TEMPO estimates, not poll rankings or ranks saved before kickoff.

Wk 1Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET at#10

Indiana L 16–52

Rating change+0.8

Wk 2Sep 12 · 3:45 PM ET vs

UNLV W 44–6

Rating change+4.5

Wk 3Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET at

Texas State L 35–49

Rating change−2.1

Wk 4Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET vs

Houston Christian W 63–14

Rating change+2.8

Wk 5Oct 1 · 9:00 PM ET at

Tulsa W 45–44

Rating change0.0

Wk 6Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET vs

Charlotte W 50–10

Rating change+0.3

Wk 8Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET at

Navy Win 68%

Playoff

Wk 9Oct 29 · 7:30 PM ET vs

Florida Atlantic Est. 80%

Wk 10Nov 7 · Time TBD vs

Rice Est. 91%

Wk 11Nov 14 · Time TBD at

UTSA Est. 55%

Wk 12Nov 21 · Time TBD at

Tulane Est. 67%

Wk 13Nov 28 · Time TBD vs

UAB Est. 89%

This season, simulated

Chances

Provisional odds. Schedule or rules need confirmation.Details

Projected record: 8.5–3.5
Conference record: 6.5–1.5

Make the playoff: 2%
First-round bye: 0%
Conference title game: 64%
Win the conference: 40%
Reach the quarterfinal: <1%
Reach the semifinal: <1%
Reach the final: <1%
Win it all: 0%

What’s at stake next

The playoff chance now, with a loss and with a win.

North Texasat NAVY Now2%<1%3%

With its 90% range at each cutoff

Rating this season

90% range

Estimated after the fact at each cutoff.

Estimates of how good the team was, not forecasts to grade

Past seasons

Season	Conference	Rank#	Rating	Off.	Def.	RecordW–L	CFP entryCFP
2025	American	48 of 136	7.1	38.1	30.9	12–2	—
2024	American	101 of 134	−10.0	25.9	35.9	6–7	—
2023	American	103 of 133	−10.1	27.1	37.2	5–7	—
2022	C-USA	86 of 131	−5.8	27.2	33.0	7–7	—
2021	C-USA	91 of 130	−5.9	25.5	31.3	6–7	—
2020	C-USA	117 of 127	−18.1	26.9	44.9	4–6	—
2019	C-USA	111 of 130	−11.6	25.5	37.0	4–8	—
2018	C-USA	82 of 130	−3.7	28.7	32.4	9–4	—
2017	C-USA	93 of 130	−7.5	30.6	38.1	9–5	—
2016	C-USA	117 of 128	−17.2	21.3	38.4	5–8	—
2015	C-USA	122 of 128	−21.6	16.8	38.4	1–11	—

Adjusted for opponents; outward is better on both sides

Profile

UNT offenseFBS average

MeasureValue

Points per drive · points per possession.

Profiles and percentiles