Mountain WestLobos

New Mexico

Next: vs North Dakota StateOct 24

Rank

71st

of 138 FBS teams

Rating

−0.2

90% range −7.9 to 7.5

Offense

25.3

78th: points scored vs an average team

Defense

25.4

63rd: points allowed vs an average team

Record

5–1

9.5–2.5 projected over the regular season

Playoff

chance to make the field

12 games, 5–1

Schedule

Ranks are retrospective TEMPO estimates, not poll rankings or ranks saved before kickoff.

Wk 1Sep 5 · 10:00 PM ET vs

Central Michigan W 38–7

Rating change+3.7

Wk 2Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ET vs

Mercyhurst W 70–7

Rating change+1.2

Wk 3Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ET at#13

Oklahoma L 6–14

Rating change+1.5

Wk 4Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET at

New Mexico State W 42–18

Rating change+0.6

Wk 5Oct 3 · 4:00 PM ET vs

UTEP W 61–7

Rating change+3.6

Wk 7Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET at

Hawai'i W 21–10

Rating change−1.2

Wk 8Oct 24 · 10:00 PM ET vs

North Dakota State Win 69%

Playoff

Wk 9Oct 31 · 4:00 PM ET at

San José State Est. 80%

Wk 10Nov 6 · 9:00 PM ET at

Nevada Est. 71%

Wk 11Nov 14 · 7:30 PM ET vs

UNLV Est. 76%

Wk 12Nov 21 · 9:00 PM ET at

Wyoming Est. 77%

Wk 13Nov 28 · 4:30 PM ET vs

Air Force Est. 72%

This season, simulated

Chances

Provisional odds. Schedule or rules need confirmation.Details

Projected record: 9.4–2.6
Conference record: 6.4–1.6

Make the playoff: 5%
First-round bye: 0%
Conference title game: 68%
Win the conference: 46%
Reach the quarterfinal: <1%
Reach the semifinal: <1%
Reach the final: 0%
Win it all: 0%

What’s at stake next

The playoff chance now, with a loss and with a win.

New Mexicovs NDSU Now5%<1%7%

With its 90% range at each cutoff

Rating this season

90% range

Estimated after the fact at each cutoff.

Estimates of how good the team was, not forecasts to grade

Past seasons

Season	Conference	Rank#	Rating	Off.	Def.	RecordW–L	CFP entryCFP
2025	Mountain West	87 of 136	−6.5	22.2	28.7	9–4	—
2024	Mountain West	104 of 134	−10.9	26.9	37.8	5–7	—
2023	Mountain West	117 of 133	−14.7	21.2	35.9	4–8	—
2022	Mountain West	129 of 131	−23.0	10.2	33.2	2–10	—
2021	Mountain West	124 of 130	−21.2	12.8	34.0	3–9	—
2020	Mountain West	112 of 127	−16.4	21.8	38.2	2–5	—
2019	Mountain West	118 of 130	−15.8	21.5	37.3	2–10	—
2018	Mountain West	117 of 130	−17.5	21.9	39.4	3–9	—
2017	Mountain West	113 of 130	−15.6	20.3	35.9	3–9	—
2016	Mountain West	84 of 128	−6.4	29.5	35.9	9–4	—
2015	Mountain West	94 of 128	−7.1	25.6	32.7	7–6	—

Adjusted for opponents; outward is better on both sides

Profile

UNM offenseFBS average

MeasureValue

Points per drive · points per possession.

Profiles and percentiles