IndependentFighting Irish

Notre Dame

Next: vs NavyOct 31

Rank

4th

of 138 FBS teams

Rating

+26.5

90% range 19.1 to 33.8

Offense

40.4

4th: points scored vs an average team

Defense

13.9

6th: points allowed vs an average team

Record

6–1

10.3–1.7 projected over the regular season

Playoff

73%

chance to make the field

12 games, 6–1

Schedule

Ranks are retrospective TEMPO estimates, not poll rankings or ranks saved before kickoff.

Wk 1Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET vs

WisconsinNeutral W 41–13

Rating change+0.2

Wk 2Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET vs

Rice W 52–0

Rating change+1.9

Wk 3Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ET vs

Michigan State W 27–10

Rating change−0.6

Wk 4Sep 26 · 2:00 PM ET at

Purdue W 49–10

Rating change+2.2

Wk 5Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET at

North Carolina W 37–26

Rating change−0.6

Wk 6Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET vs

Stanford W 58–7

Rating change+0.6

Wk 7Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET at#19

BYU L 24–28

Rating change−2.1

Wk 9Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET vs

NavyNeutral Est. 99%

Wk 10Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET vs#5

Miami Est. 58%

Wk 11Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET vs

Boston College Est. 98%

Wk 12Nov 21 · 7:30 PM ET vs

SMU Est. 89%

Wk 13Nov 28 · Time TBD at

Syracuse Est. 91%

This season, simulated

Chances

Provisional odds. Schedule or rules need confirmation.Details

Projected record: 10.3–1.7
Conference record: 0.0–0.0

Make the playoff: 73%
First-round bye: 12%
Conference title game: 0%
Win the conference: 0%
Reach the quarterfinal: 53%
Reach the semifinal: 31%
Reach the final: 17%
Win it all: 9%

With its 90% range at each cutoff

Rating this season

90% range

Estimated after the fact at each cutoff.

Estimates of how good the team was, not forecasts to grade

Past seasons

Season	Conference	Rank#	Rating	Off.	Def.	RecordW–L	CFP entryCFP
2025	Independent	3 of 136	29.8	42.4	12.6	10–2	—
2024	Independent	2 of 134	25.8	39.9	14.1	14–2	Seed7
2023	Independent	4 of 133	26.2	40.6	14.4	10–3	—
2022	Independent	14 of 131	14.8	35.4	20.6	9–4	—
2021	Independent	7 of 130	17.7	36.4	18.6	11–2	—
2020	ACC	9 of 127	18.3	35.4	17.1	10–2	Seed4
2019	Independent	10 of 130	19.4	36.6	17.2	11–2	—
2018	Independent	11 of 130	17.6	34.8	17.1	12–1	Seed3
2017	Independent	19 of 130	13.3	35.9	22.7	10–3	—
2016	Independent	20 of 128	11.9	37.0	25.1	4–8	—
2015	Independent	16 of 128	14.1	39.6	25.4	10–3	—

Adjusted for opponents; outward is better on both sides

Profile

ND offenseFBS average

MeasureValue

Points per drive · points per possession.

Profiles and percentiles