Sun BeltMountaineers

App State

Next: vs James MadisonOct 22

Rank

106th

of 138 FBS teams

Rating

−11.8

90% range −19.7 to −3.8

Offense

20.2

106th: points scored vs an average team

Defense

31.9

109th: points allowed vs an average team

Record

4–2

6.7–5.3 projected over the regular season

Playoff

<1%

chance to make the field

12 games, 4–2

Schedule

Wk 1Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET vs

Maine W 55–3

Rating change+4.9

Wk 2Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET at

East Carolina W 27–24

Rating change+0.3

Wk 3Sep 19 · 6:00 PM ET vs

Charlotte W 26–21

Rating change−0.4

Wk 4Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET at

NC State L 31–41

Rating change+0.7

Wk 6Oct 10 · 1:00 PM ET vs

Old Dominion L 3–10

Rating change−2.4

Wk 7Oct 16 · 8:00 PM ET at

Coastal Carolina W 35–32

Rating change0.0

Wk 8Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET vs

James Madison Win 23%

Playoff

Wk 9Oct 31 · 6:30 PM ET at

Georgia Southern Est. 26%

Wk 10Nov 7 · Time TBD vs

Georgia State Est. 44%

Wk 11Nov 14 · Time TBD at

Marshall Est. 50%

Wk 12Nov 21 · Time TBD vs

UL Monroe Est. 82%

Wk 13Nov 27 · 3:00 PM ET at

South Alabama Est. 42%

This season, simulated

Chances

Provisional odds. Schedule or rules need confirmation.Details

Projected record: 6.7–5.3
Conference record: 3.7–4.3

Make the playoff: <1%
First-round bye: 0%
Conference title game: 3%
Win the conference: 1%
Reach the quarterfinal: 0%
Reach the semifinal: 0%
Reach the final: 0%
Win it all: 0%

What’s at stake next

The playoff chance now, with a loss and with a win.

App Statevs JMU Now<1%0%<1%

With its 90% range at each cutoff

Rating this season

90% range

Estimated after the fact at each cutoff.

Estimates of how good the team was, not forecasts to grade

Past seasons

Season	Conference	Rank#	Rating	Off.	Def.	RecordW–L	CFP entryCFP
2025	Sun Belt	122 of 136	−17.7	17.2	34.9	5–8	—
2024	Sun Belt	95 of 134	−8.1	24.8	32.8	5–6	—
2023	Sun Belt	59 of 133	0.9	30.2	29.2	9–5	—
2022	Sun Belt	63 of 131	0.7	30.2	29.5	6–6	—
2021	Sun Belt	35 of 130	7.2	31.2	24.0	10–4	—
2020	Sun Belt	45 of 127	4.9	30.0	25.1	9–3	—
2019	Sun Belt	38 of 130	7.0	32.3	25.3	13–1	—
2018	Sun Belt	52 of 130	4.4	28.6	24.2	11–2	—
2017	Sun Belt	45 of 130	5.9	29.7	23.7	9–4	—
2016	Sun Belt	57 of 128	2.9	27.2	24.3	10–3	—
2015	Sun Belt	52 of 128	4.5	30.8	26.3	11–2	—

Adjusted for opponents; outward is better on both sides

Profile

APP offenseFBS average

MeasureValue

Points per drive · points per possession.

Profiles and percentiles