MACRockets

Toledo

Next: vs Western MichiganOct 24

Rank

75th

of 138 FBS teams

Rating

−2.3

90% range −10.2 to 5.5

Offense

26.1

72nd: points scored vs an average team

Defense

28.4

85th: points allowed vs an average team

Record

5–2

8.9–3.1 projected over the regular season

Playoff

<1%

chance to make the field

12 games, 5–2

Schedule

Wk 1Sep 4 · 8:00 PM ET at

Michigan State L 20–30

Rating change−0.4

Wk 2Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET vs

Central Connecticut W 63–10

Rating change+3.2

Wk 3Sep 19 · 3:00 PM ET vs

Temple W 49–48

Rating change+1.8

Wk 4Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET vs

San Diego State W 41–16

Rating change+3.7

Wk 5Oct 3 · 2:00 PM ET at

Ball State W 39–24

Rating change−1.4

Wk 6Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET vs

Buffalo L 8–23

Rating change−3.8

Wk 7Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET at

Eastern Michigan W 34–14

Rating change+2.4

Wk 8Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET vs

Western Michigan Win 65%

Playoff

Wk 10Nov 4 · Time TBD at

Sacramento State Est. 94%

Wk 11Nov 11 · Time TBD vs

Massachusetts Est. 88%

Wk 12Nov 20 · 7:30 PM ET vs

Bowling Green Est. 89%

Wk 13Nov 27 · 12:00 PM ET at

Ohio Est. 49%

This season, simulated

Chances

Provisional odds. Schedule or rules need confirmation.Details

Projected record: 8.9–3.1
Conference record: 5.9–2.1

Make the playoff: <1%
First-round bye: 0%
Conference title game: 47%
Win the conference: 28%
Reach the quarterfinal: 0%
Reach the semifinal: 0%
Reach the final: 0%
Win it all: 0%

What’s at stake next

The playoff chance now, with a loss and with a win.

Toledovs WMU Now<1%0%<1%

With its 90% range at each cutoff

Rating this season

90% range

Estimated after the fact at each cutoff.

Estimates of how good the team was, not forecasts to grade

Past seasons

Season	Conference	Rank#	Rating	Off.	Def.	RecordW–L	CFP entryCFP
2025	MAC	43 of 136	8.4	28.2	19.7	8–5	—
2024	MAC	90 of 134	−6.5	23.5	30.0	8–5	—
2023	MAC	65 of 133	−0.4	26.6	27.0	11–3	—
2022	MAC	69 of 131	−1.9	25.8	27.7	9–5	—
2021	MAC	60 of 130	2.8	29.5	26.7	7–6	—
2020	MAC	69 of 127	−1.0	28.5	29.6	4–2	—
2019	MAC	120 of 130	−16.4	22.6	39.0	6–6	—
2018	MAC	75 of 130	−2.1	33.7	35.7	7–6	—
2017	MAC	66 of 130	−0.1	30.6	30.6	11–3	—
2016	MAC	53 of 128	3.5	34.8	31.4	9–4	—
2015	MAC	41 of 128	7.1	33.2	26.1	10–2	—

Adjusted for opponents; outward is better on both sides

Profile

TOL offenseFBS average

MeasureValue

Points per drive · points per possession.

Profiles and percentiles