Arkansas State at Southern Miss
Final
ARST59% USM41%
Called TEMPO had ARST by 3.4. ARST won by 10.
Forecast and result
| Measure | TEMPO | Market line | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | TEMPOARST by 3.43.6 pts toward USM vs the line | Market lineARST by 7.0Opened: ARST by 7.0 | FinalARST by 10.0 |
| Total points | TEMPO59.62.9 pts under the line | Market line62.5Opened: 58.5 | Final36 |
Market median saved Oct 13, 2026Grading
Forecast results
- Margin miss
- 6.6 points
- Total miss
- 23.6 points
- Market margin miss
- 3.0 points
- Market total miss
- 26.5 points
Actual game measures
How each offense performed, based on the plays in our records.
| Measure | ARST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Points per drive | 2.09 | 1.27 |
| Finishing drives | 3.83 | 2.33 |
| EPA/play | −0.08 | −0.16 |
| Success rate | 37.7% | 31.7% |
| Rush success | 34.0% | 33.3% |
| Pass success | 43.3% | 31.4% |
| Yards per play | 4.09 | 4.63 |
| Explosive plays | 10.4% | 15.0% |
| Havoc | 16.9% | 8.3% |
| Pace | 78.0 | 60.0 |
Compared with opponent. Lower havoc is better; pace and close values stay neutral. Results through Tue, Oct 20, 2026, 8:25 AM ET. — means no measured value.
Series
Head to head
Ratings this season
Each team’s strength at every cutoff in this saved update, with 90% ranges.
90% range