Sun BeltRed Wolves

Arkansas State

Next: vs Georgia StateOct 24

Rank

99th

of 138 FBS teams

Rating

−9.0

90% range −16.4 to −1.5

Offense

21.6

94th: points scored vs an average team

Defense

30.5

100th: points allowed vs an average team

Record

3–4

5.9–6.1 projected over the regular season

Playoff

chance to make the field

12 games, 3–4

Schedule

Wk 1Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET at

Memphis L 24–42

Rating change+0.4

Wk 2Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET vs

West Georgia W 52–7

Rating change−0.4

Wk 3Sep 19 · 8:00 PM ET at

TCU L 7–31

Rating change−0.7

Wk 4Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET vs

Kennesaw State W 17–14

Rating change−0.5

Wk 5Oct 3 · 8:00 PM ET at

Louisiana L 20–23

Rating change−0.2

Wk 6Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET vs

South Alabama L 49–56

Rating change+0.6

Wk 7Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET at

Southern Miss W 23–13

Rating change+0.7

Wk 8Oct 24 · 7:00 PM ET vs

Georgia State Win 51%

Wk 10Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET vs

UL Monroe Est. 87%

Wk 11Nov 14 · Time TBD at

Coastal Carolina Est. 62%

Wk 12Nov 21 · Time TBD at

Louisiana Tech Est. 31%

Wk 13Nov 28 · 3:00 PM ET vs

Troy Est. 60%

This season, simulated

Chances

Provisional odds. Schedule or rules need confirmation.Details

Projected record: 5.9–6.1
Conference record: 3.9–4.1

Make the playoff: 0%
First-round bye: 0%
Conference title game: 2%
Win the conference: <1%
Reach the quarterfinal: 0%
Reach the semifinal: 0%
Reach the final: 0%
Win it all: 0%

With its 90% range at each cutoff

Rating this season

90% range

Estimated after the fact at each cutoff.

Estimates of how good the team was, not forecasts to grade

Past seasons

Season	Conference	Rank#	Rating	Off.	Def.	RecordW–L	CFP entryCFP
2025	Sun Belt	102 of 136	−12.3	20.6	33.0	7–6	—
2024	Sun Belt	113 of 134	−13.1	22.6	35.7	8–5	—
2023	Sun Belt	96 of 133	−8.2	23.7	31.9	6–7	—
2022	Sun Belt	125 of 131	−17.5	20.3	37.8	3–9	—
2021	Sun Belt	118 of 130	−16.5	22.2	38.7	2–10	—
2020	Sun Belt	104 of 127	−12.4	28.1	40.5	4–7	—
2019	Sun Belt	92 of 130	−7.5	28.2	35.7	8–5	—
2018	Sun Belt	70 of 130	0.1	28.2	28.1	8–5	—
2017	Sun Belt	70 of 130	−0.8	30.6	31.4	7–5	—
2016	Sun Belt	71 of 128	−2.3	26.3	28.6	8–5	—
2015	Sun Belt	65 of 128	1.1	36.2	35.1	9–4	—

Adjusted for opponents; outward is better on both sides

Profile

ARST offenseFBS average

MeasureValue

Points per drive · points per possession.

Profiles and percentiles