North Carolina at Duke
Final
UNC43% DUKE57%
Missed TEMPO had DUKE by 2.7. UNC won by 4.
Forecast and result
| Measure | TEMPO | Market line | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | TEMPODUKE by 2.70.3 pts toward UNC vs the line | Market lineDUKE by 3.0Opened: DUKE by 4.0 | FinalUNC by 4.0 |
| Total points | TEMPO49.21.7 pts over the line | Market line47.5Opened: 51.0 | Final44 |
Market median saved Oct 13, 2026Grading
Forecast results
- Margin miss
- 6.7 points
- Total miss
- 5.2 points
- Market margin miss
- 7.0 points
- Market total miss
- 3.5 points
Actual game measures
How each offense performed, based on the plays in our records.
| Measure | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Points per drive | 2.18 | 1.30 |
| Finishing drives | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| EPA/play | −0.07 | −0.03 |
| Success rate | 46.9% | 39.4% |
| Rush success | 44.4% | 44.8% |
| Pass success | 53.8% | 35.7% |
| Yards per play | 5.11 | 4.92 |
| Explosive plays | 10.9% | 8.5% |
| Havoc | 12.5% | 5.6% |
| Pace | 64.0 | 71.0 |
Compared with opponent. Lower havoc is better; pace and close values stay neutral. Results through Tue, Oct 20, 2026, 8:25 AM ET. — means no measured value.
Series
Head to head
Ratings this season
Each team’s strength at every cutoff in this saved update, with 90% ranges.
90% range