Big TenNittany Lions

Penn State

Next: vs PurdueOct 31

Rank

36th

of 138 FBS teams

Rating

+9.6

90% range 1.8 to 17.4

Offense

30.0

48th: points scored vs an average team

Defense

20.3

30th: points allowed vs an average team

Record

3–4

6.4–5.6 projected over the regular season

Playoff

chance to make the field

12 games, 3–4

Schedule

Ranks are retrospective TEMPO estimates, not poll rankings or ranks saved before kickoff.

Wk 1Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET vs

Marshall W 45–0

Rating change+2.9

Wk 2Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET at

Temple W 27–9

Rating change−2.5

Wk 3Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET vs

Buffalo W 55–13

Rating change+1.3

Wk 4Sep 26 · 5:00 PM ET vs

Wisconsin L 20–24

Rating change−4.1

Wk 5Oct 2 · 8:00 PM ET at

Northwestern L 13–34

Rating change−2.8

Wk 6Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET vs#15

USC L 23–31

Rating change−1.3

Wk 7Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET at#25

Michigan L 18–21

Rating change+0.4

Wk 9Oct 31 · Time TBD vs

Purdue Est. 77%

Wk 10Nov 7 · Time TBD at

Washington Est. 46%

Wk 11Nov 14 · Time TBD vs

Minnesota Est. 73%

Wk 12Nov 21 · Time TBD vs

Rutgers Est. 78%

Wk 13Nov 28 · Time TBD at

Maryland Est. 65%

This season, simulated

Chances

Provisional odds. Schedule or rules need confirmation.Details

Projected record: 6.4–5.6
Conference record: 3.4–5.6

Make the playoff: 0%
First-round bye: 0%
Conference title game: 0%
Win the conference: 0%
Reach the quarterfinal: 0%
Reach the semifinal: 0%
Reach the final: 0%
Win it all: 0%

With its 90% range at each cutoff

Rating this season

90% range

Estimated after the fact at each cutoff.

Estimates of how good the team was, not forecasts to grade

Past seasons

Season	Conference	Rank#	Rating	Off.	Def.	RecordW–L	CFP entryCFP
2025	Big Ten	17 of 136	17.2	34.1	16.9	7–6	—
2024	Big Ten	3 of 134	25.4	38.0	12.6	13–3	Seed6
2023	Big Ten	8 of 133	23.2	37.3	14.1	10–3	—
2022	Big Ten	7 of 131	21.8	37.3	15.5	11–2	—
2021	Big Ten	22 of 130	10.2	28.8	18.6	7–6	—
2020	Big Ten	22 of 127	13.0	35.5	22.5	4–5	—
2019	Big Ten	13 of 130	18.8	36.4	17.6	11–2	—
2018	Big Ten	14 of 130	15.8	36.3	20.5	9–4	—
2017	Big Ten	6 of 130	24.6	44.2	19.6	11–2	—
2016	Big Ten	13 of 128	16.1	42.2	26.1	11–3	—
2015	Big Ten	56 of 128	2.8	28.7	25.9	7–6	—

Adjusted for opponents; outward is better on both sides

Profile

PSU offenseFBS average

MeasureValue

Points per drive · points per possession.

Profiles and percentiles