Big TenSpartans

Michigan State

Next: at UCLAOct 24

Rank

58th

of 138 FBS teams

Rating

+3.1

90% range −4.6 to 10.8

Offense

26.7

68th: points scored vs an average team

Defense

23.6

51st: points allowed vs an average team

Record

2–5

3.5–8.5 projected over the regular season

Playoff

chance to make the field

12 games, 2–5

Schedule

Ranks are retrospective TEMPO estimates, not poll rankings or ranks saved before kickoff.

Wk 1Sep 4 · 8:00 PM ET vs

Toledo W 30–20

Rating change−0.2

Wk 2Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET vs

Eastern Michigan W 35–7

Rating change+1.5

Wk 3Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ET at#3

Notre Dame L 10–27

Rating change+1.3

Wk 4Sep 26 · 5:00 PM ET vs#21

Nebraska L 13–31

Rating change+1.0

Wk 5Oct 3 · 12:30 PM ET at

Wisconsin L 3–31

Rating change−1.1

Wk 6Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET vs

Illinois L 37–38

Rating change+0.2

Wk 7Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET vs

Northwestern L 21–24

Rating change+0.3

Wk 8Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET at#20

UCLA Win 17%

Wk 10Nov 7 · Time TBD at

Michigan Est. 22%

Wk 11Nov 14 · Time TBD vs

Washington Est. 44%

Wk 12Nov 20 · 8:00 PM ET vs#10

Oregon Est. 15%

Wk 13Nov 28 · Time TBD at

Rutgers Est. 51%

This season, simulated

Chances

Provisional odds. Schedule or rules need confirmation.Details

Projected record: 3.5–8.5
Conference record: 1.5–7.5

Make the playoff: 0%
First-round bye: 0%
Conference title game: 0%
Win the conference: 0%
Reach the quarterfinal: 0%
Reach the semifinal: 0%
Reach the final: 0%
Win it all: 0%

With its 90% range at each cutoff

Rating this season

90% range

Estimated after the fact at each cutoff.

Estimates of how good the team was, not forecasts to grade

Past seasons

Season	Conference	Rank#	Rating	Off.	Def.	RecordW–L	CFP entryCFP
2025	Big Ten	63 of 136	2.3	27.3	25.0	4–8	—
2024	Big Ten	74 of 134	−1.4	23.7	25.2	5–7	—
2023	Big Ten	86 of 133	−6.0	21.1	27.1	4–8	—
2022	Big Ten	54 of 131	2.5	28.1	25.6	5–7	—
2021	Big Ten	50 of 130	5.3	30.7	25.4	11–2	—
2020	Big Ten	71 of 127	−1.4	26.9	28.3	2–5	—
2019	Big Ten	33 of 130	7.9	27.1	19.1	7–6	—
2018	Big Ten	33 of 130	8.5	22.8	14.3	7–6	—
2017	Big Ten	23 of 130	11.3	30.5	19.2	10–3	—
2016	Big Ten	42 of 128	6.5	31.4	24.9	3–9	—
2015	Big Ten	28 of 128	10.7	30.9	20.2	12–2	Seed3

Adjusted for opponents; outward is better on both sides

Profile

MSU offenseFBS average

MeasureValue

Points per drive · points per possession.

Profiles and percentiles