Pac-12Bulldogs

Fresno State

Next: vs Oregon StateOct 31

Rank

76th

of 138 FBS teams

Rating

−3.5

90% range −10.9 to 3.9

Offense

22.6

86th: points scored vs an average team

Defense

26.1

67th: points allowed vs an average team

Record

4–3

5.9–5.1 projected over the regular season

Playoff

chance to make the field

11 games, 4–3

Schedule

Ranks are retrospective TEMPO estimates, not poll rankings or ranks saved before kickoff.

Wk 1Sep 4 · 9:00 PM ET at#14

USC L 0–39

Rating change−3.7

Wk 2Sep 12 · 10:30 PM ET vs

Sacramento State W 49–3

Rating change+2.4

Wk 3Sep 19 · 11:00 PM ET at

San José State W 26–10

Rating change−0.4

Wk 4Sep 26 · 10:00 PM ET vs

Rice W 38–24

Rating change−1.6

Wk 5Oct 3 · 9:30 PM ET at

Washington State W 26–6

Rating change+2.9

Wk 6Oct 10 · 10:30 PM ET vs

Boise State L 31–38

Rating change+0.8

Wk 7Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET at

San Diego State L 23–26

Rating change−1.0

Wk 9Oct 31 · 11:00 PM ET vs

Oregon State Est. 31%

Wk 10Nov 7 · 9:30 PM ET at

Utah State Est. 46%

Wk 11Nov 14 · 4:00 PM ET at

Texas State Est. 28%

Wk 12Nov 21 · 7:30 PM ET vs

Colorado State Est. 83%

This season, simulated

Chances

Provisional odds. Schedule or rules need confirmation.Details

Projected record: 6.6–5.4
Conference record: 2.9–4.1

Make the playoff: 0%
First-round bye: 0%
Conference title game: 4%
Win the conference: 1%
Reach the quarterfinal: 0%
Reach the semifinal: 0%
Reach the final: 0%
Win it all: 0%

With its 90% range at each cutoff

Rating this season

90% range

Estimated after the fact at each cutoff.

Estimates of how good the team was, not forecasts to grade

Past seasons

Season	Conference	Rank#	Rating	Off.	Def.	RecordW–L	CFP entryCFP
2025	Mountain West	82 of 136	−4.5	21.0	25.5	9–4	—
2024	Mountain West	83 of 134	−4.7	23.4	28.1	6–7	—
2023	Mountain West	81 of 133	−4.4	24.0	28.4	9–4	—
2022	Mountain West	40 of 131	6.1	29.3	23.2	10–4	—
2021	Mountain West	51 of 130	5.1	30.6	25.5	10–3	—
2020	Mountain West	95 of 127	−7.8	26.8	34.7	3–3	—
2019	Mountain West	78 of 130	−4.4	26.3	30.7	4–8	—
2018	Mountain West	20 of 130	12.6	30.9	18.3	12–2	—
2017	Mountain West	58 of 130	2.2	25.6	23.3	10–4	—
2016	Mountain West	126 of 128	−22.9	13.1	36.0	1–11	—
2015	Mountain West	108 of 128	−15.7	22.7	38.4	3–9	—

Adjusted for opponents; outward is better on both sides

Profile

FRES offenseFBS average

MeasureValue

Points per drive · points per possession.

Profiles and percentiles